Why show two numbers?
Official figures are the baseline. The rolling estimate adds a projection for a gap of at most seven days after the latest official row, using the latest seven-day average. The estimate is a simple extrapolation, not a forecast or an official count. If the source is more than seven days behind or the averaging window is incomplete, no projection is added.
Where does the data come from?
The source is the GOV.UK publication on small boat activity in the English Channel. Megadinghy is a satire site and should not be treated as an official statistics provider.
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See this week's arrivals, this month's arrivals, and the live-style stats dashboard.